
Indian
Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT) is organizing the Seventh Biannual Conference
on Empirical issues in International Trade and Finance (EIITF) during 16-17
December, 2021 at Kolkata Campus. The COVID-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented
disruption in global trade and economy. Both lives and livelihood faced a jolt
and the production scaled back across the globe. Most of the economies have
become even more inward looking. However, international co-operation is needed
to keep trade flowing. This conference aims to have fruitful academic and policy
discussion among the researchers and build a platform for exchange of ideas on
the 21st century advancement in trade and investment, more so in the post-
Covid-19 scenario. The theme of the conference this year is ‘Trade, Finance, and
Development: Contemporary Issues’. The sub-themes for the conference include
International trade and organization of Firms and Business, Product-mix, Quality
and International Trade, Trade and Welfare, Unilateralism vs. Multilateralism
and Role of WTO, Stabilization Policies and Developmental issues in an Open
Economy, Corporate Finance and Governance, Risk Management and Quantitative
Finance, Financial Markets and Institutions, Financial Technology, etc.
In the
last couple of years, the principles of trade liberalization have often faced
serious resistance, from within and across countries. The slow pace of reforms
at WTO incrementally reduces the incentive for Member countries to rely on the
multilateral forum for trade and investment promotion. In this context, the
recent US standpoint on appointment of Appellate Body jurists puts the WTO
dispute settlement process in a standstill, thereby lowering the attraction of
multilateral conflict resolution processes further. The gradual shift towards
neo-protectionism in general and imposition of retaliatory tariff measures
between China and the US in particular have already taken a toll on the global
manufacturing employment scenario and may disrupt the global value chain
considerably. The labour market related concerns also slow down the movement of
professionals in service trade category. The emerging quest to safeguard
national interest has led to quite a few withdrawals from Regional Trade
Agreements in recent times, namely – USA’s pullout from Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP), UK’s departure from the European Union (EU), i.e., Brexit.
The recent Indian call to bail out of the Regional Comprehensive Economics
Partnership (RCEP) needs to be viewed in this wider context as also the call to
renegotiate the Indo-ASEAN FTA.
The
looming uncertainty on trade and economic front influences the stability in
financial markets as well. Besides, continuous persuasion of accommodating
monetary policy across the globe since the global financial crisis has led to a
substantial decline in interest rates in international markets. This, in turn,
has led investors to take a greater risk and exposure in search of higher yield
causing stretched valuation in certain sectors in several countries. It can be
noted from the Global Financial Stability Report (IMF, 2019), corporate sector
vulnerabilities have also heightened in recent years – corporate debt-at-risk
(corporate earnings not being able to meet interest expenses with their
earnings) is expected to reach 40 percent of total outstanding corporate debt in
major economies in case of an economic slowdown only half as severe as the one
during the global financial crisis about a decade ago. Lower interest rates have
also caused institutional investors to allocate an increasing proportion of
assets into high-risk and illiquid securities. There has been an increase in
build-up of foreign debt in several emerging market economies which wanted to
exploit the low interest rates and surplus liquidity in global markets. In the
recent times, cryptocurrency has taken an important role in the world market as
an asset class as well as a medium of exchange. A few major economies are even
accepting cross-border transactions via cryptocurrency. Several countries,
including India, are working on introducing their own digital currency (CBDC).
India is yet to acknowledge payment through cryptocurrency. The government of
India is coming out with a regulation to monitor the cryptocurrency market and
is unlikely to accept it as a global currency. The emergence of instruments like
cryptocurrency will certainly have an immense impact on the global trade
patterns in near future.
The
EIITF conference 2021, is hosted on hybrid mode due to the ongoing Covid-19
pandemic. The year 2020-21 has already witnessed unprecedented health crisis
leading to major disruptions in the developmental progress. Even though the
conference is hosted in the hybrid mode, its academic intent to find some novel
answers to the emerging challenges in the field of international trade and
finance through discussion on the technical analysis by the participants can
certainly ensure rich deliberations. While wishing the conference all success, I
sincerely hope that the EIITF 2021 will bring up new suggestions on the policy
front. For all its complexity Economists must continue to drive policy in
countries.
Prof. Manoj Pant
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